Let's take a look at the Memphis vs. Temple odds and make a pick for Friday's American Athletic Conference showdown.
Memphis Tigers vs Temple Owls OddsFriday, November 2412 p.m. ETESPNMemphis Tigers OddsPoint SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline-13-11065-110o / -110u-500Temple Owls OddsPoint SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline+13-11065-110o / -110u+375Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
The Memphis Tigers and Temple Owls enter this matchup with opposite records: the Tigers boast an 8-3 record, while the Owls are 3-8.
Memphis has scored 34 or more points in its past five games, four of which were victories. It dropped its most recent matchup to SMU, 38-34.
Temple has also played SMU this season, and the Owls' final result was much different: a 55-0 loss.
Another commonality between these two teams is an inability to cover or beat the spread. Both teams have covered only three games this year.
The Tigers team has played in many close games this season as a favorite. In fact, they've failed to cover in three straight.
Temple has managed to keep its last three games close after consistently getting blown out, including an outright win over Navy as a 6.5-point 'dog. It lost by four against USF and managed to keep it to 10 against UAB. This is a vast improvement from earlier in the season when four-score blowouts were the norm.
The question is: is this Temple team truly competitive now? And can it keep it close against a Tigers team that has shown a willingness to keep inferior opponents around late in ball games?
The must-have app for college football bettorsThe Tigers' efficient offense has terrorized the American Athletic Conference for years. This season, the Tigers rank 29th in Success Rate, 27th in Explosiveness and 18th in Points per Opportunity.
The numbers are primarily driven by their passing game. Memphis ranks 23rd in Pass Success Rate and 28th in total Passing PPA. They're aware of their strength, as they dial up pass on 55% of their offensive plays, good for 22nd in the country.
Quarterback Seth Henigan has been the driver behind this impressive passing attack.
Henigan had a solid season last year, posting an 80 Pro Football Focus passing grade, but he's built upon that by posting an 82 PFF passing grade this season. Look for him to have a nice day against a shaky Temple secondary.
Memphis helps itself by staying ahead of the sticks. The Tigers stay in Standard Downs at the 15th-highest rate nationally. This indicates they're consistently keeping third downs in manageable situations or avoiding them altogether.
The best way to do that is to keep pass rushers off your quarterback, which avoids turnovers, and Memphis ranks 41st in Havoc allowed.
Temple OwlsThis Owls defense may be in trouble against this prolific Memphis passing attack.
Temple's advanced defensive metrics are not ideal, as they rank 104th in Success Rate allowed, 128th in Points per Opportunity allowed and 122nd in Havoc generated.
The Owls rank 110th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 126th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. They let quarterbacks stand in the pocket and get comfortable because they don't make them uncomfortable with pressure.
If Temple can't get to Henigan, it will be a long day for the secondary.
Look for Temple to return the ball to Memphis quickly, as the Owls rank 115th in Standard Downs rate. I was saying Memphis was great at staying ahead of the sticks, and that's what Temple struggles with the most. I anticipate a lot of short drives and quick punts for Temple on Saturday.
Memphis vs TempleMatchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and Temple match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. Temple DefenseOffenseDefenseEdgeRush Success4191Line Yards105100Pass Success23132Havoc72132Finishing Drives18126Quality Drives59131Temple Offense vs. Memphis DefenseOffenseDefenseEdgeRush Success12797Line Yards12188Pass Success7644Havoc3817Finishing Drives113110Quality Drives7173Pace of Play / OtherPFF Tackling12854PFF Coverage86120Special Teams SP+60123Middle 829128Seconds per Play26.2 (49)24.2 (16)Rush Rate46.6% (108)40.1% (128)Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.Memphis vs TempleBetting Pick & Prediction
While Memphis has struggled to separate itself from inferior opponents this season, Friday should be the exception.
The Tigers' passing attack will be far too much for the Owls' defense, and I expect them to score quickly and often by moving the ball down the field through the air.
I'm betting on Memphis, and I'm also looking at Henigan over 316.5 passing yards.
Pick: Memphis -13